امتیں گلشن ہستی میں ثمر چیدہ بھی ھیں
اور محروم ثمر بھی ھیں’ خزاں دیدہ بھی ھیں
In Life’s old garden nations lived
Who all its fruits enjoyed,
While others longed in vain, while some
The winter blasts destroyed;
(Muhammad Iqbal’s Jawab e Shikwah: XXVII)
ABSTRACT: “Last century, Europe and America ruled the world with wars, holocaust, genocide and the Keynesian capitalism and Marx’s communism paradigm both also collapsed. But this century belongs to Asia and Africa with mixed economy and friendly trade and relationships through China’s Belt and Road Initiative”.
COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the health and financial crisis never seen in the last hundred years after the WW1 and the Spanish flu of 1918-20.
To overcome the current pandemic, the United States and Europe are spending excessive amounts of money but they are creating grave future dangers for their economy. We should not think that the world will magically return to normal after the pandemic. So, the pandemic will start of a new era, some nations will be winners and some losers.
Barak Obama and the Europeans had wasted the opportunity created by financial crisis of 2008 by indulging in wars in Libya, Middle East, Iraq and Rohingya crisis in Burma etc.
The Muslims power started declining in 1878 and came to an end in 1923 with the break-up of the Ottoman Empire. Then the great depression of 1930 and WWII finished all the gains European had earned after the breakup of Ottoman Empire.
The Western colonies in Asia and Africa started war of independence from their colonial rulers but Europe emerged economically safe due to Maynard Keynes’s “ The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.
The Keynesian paradigm collapsed in Europe and America in 1973 after Yom Kippur War (6 Oct to 24 oct 1973). The oil price rose 378 times and high inflation and high unemployment of 1970s and 1980s lead to ‘Stagflation’.
The Middle East/Muslim countries used oil as weapon and wealth in 1970s/1980s and started giving employment opportunities to Asian and Western countries in, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria.
For the first time in 1976 America and Europe started selling sophisticated arms to Iran, Middle East and third world countries and started playing the role of referee as Super power in the wars. Iran and the Middle East started sending their citizens to Western countries for higher education and development started. Iran became biggest the Naval power of Asia with the help of USA.
But, in1979 the Islamic revolution in Iran and USSR occupation of Afghanistan slowed down the development of Middle East/Iran.
The break-up of USSR in 1990 and Balkan and Gulf Wars gave opportunities to Middle East to purchase arms from the West and America. After the 9/11, America again returned to Iraq and Afghanistan which resulted in loss of trillion of American dollars and loss of human life on both sides.
China benefited most during the Gulf Wars and economically became stronger through the development of manufacturing sectors. Then came 2008 financial crisis and Barack Obama came into power in January 2009. The financial crisis of 2008 lead to major shift between balance of power between USA and China.
President Obama saved USA from financial collapse but created problems again in the Middle East through the “Arab Spring” in 2011.
After Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria was the last country in the so called Arab Spring where USA became stuck in 2015 through the intervention of President Putin of Russia.
Putin finished ISIS which was created by the Western powers in Iraq and Syria . He also informed Tayyab Erdogan of Turkey about anticipated July 2016 military coup in advance. After unsuccessful coup of 15th July 2016 in Turkey, Erdogan and Putin turned the table against the Western powers.
In 2017, Donald Trump became President of America and completely changed the World Order established after WWII and created a new enemy China.
In 2018, Trump started a Cold War with China and separated itself from the global economy. US became defensive with China because the Chinese economy had become larger that the US after 2014 Road and Belt Initiative of China. Trump made US relationship with Europeans weaker than it was previously. The Europeans started feeling isolated by the USA and it was beginning of the breakdown of the West.
(My post on Facebook dated 26th July 2020)